Not slowly -- but surely. Here are some numbers: by 2060, the population is projected to decrease from about 82 million today to 65 - 70 million. By 2060, the number of people over 80 will have gone from 3% to 14%, the number of those 65 - 80 will be at some 20%.
Of course, a lot of people worry, and everybody proposes measures that are, at the end of the day, nothing but window dressing. Up the retirement age by a few years, cut state benefits, make people put more of their own money into retirement plans, make the labour market "more flexible", have more family friendly policies. The blogster wonders, do they mean the ones described in Nepotism for Dummies?
Today's young people are warned to not rely on government to provide much, but one way they are going to get money is never mentioned: inheritances split previously between 3 or 4 children will go to 1 or 2, and there will be lots of childless aunts and uncles. The only drawback: the old folks are living longer.
One group that will not need support are the undertakers.
More immigration would help, but the sentiment across Europe is not favorable, even though we are all related anyway.
So, we will see history repeat itself.
The last time Germany lost 25% to 40% of its population was in the early 1600s, in the series of wars called the 30 Years' War.
Guess what they did then? They recruited immigrants.
In our corner, which we affectionately dubbed hillbilly country, the new arrivals came mainly from Belgium and France. One small town we looked at has around 30% of its 500 inhabitants with roots in Belgium and France going back to that time. That quintessential French name Dupont is as German around here as it gets.
To Americans, it is quite a surprise that in 2011, some 19.5% of the population of Germany are first or second (and third) generation immigrants.
So, who bitches about immigration?
Just like elsewhere, including the US, those fifth generation and earlier.
When the time is right, will the Germans go to the Amish and offer them a return ticket plus guarantees of religious and fire alarm freedoms?
Just one piece of advice: hold off for a few more years with that real estate purchase. Outside of the "lard belt" (suburbia) prices may drop some more in real terms.
[Update 9 May] Just a day after the post, the immigrations numbers for 2012 came out. We love them! About a million newcomers. Minus those who left for greener pastures, this is a net influx of around 300 000. Welcome.
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